Astros vie to extend series win streak over Cubs

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros have yet to lose a series to the Chicago Cubs this year. Starting pitcher Bud Norris getting his first victory in well over two months would keep that stretch going.

Norris and the Astros aim for a fourth series win over the Cubs in as many tries this year in Wednesday night's finale of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

The Astros have won seven of 11 versus the Cubs in 2010 and evened this series on Tuesday behind Brett Myers' complete game and a big seventh inning by the Houston offense that led to a 6-1 triumph.

Myers scattered one run and matched a career high with 12 strikeouts while going the distance for the first time since Sept. 14, 2008 with Philadelphia, while Lance Berkman capped a six-run seventh inning with a grand slam.

"Mr. Myers does it again, just an absolute outstanding performance," Houston manager Brad Mills said after his team improved to 2-3 on a nine-game homestand. "He just continues to battle. It's fun to watch."

Myers allowed just Tyler Colvin's ninth-inning homer to fall short of the shutout. The Cubs, who have lost two of three, failed to back Ted Lilly's scoreless 5 2/3 innings in the start. Reliever Andrew Cashner was charged with all six Houston runs over 1 1/3 innings of work.

Both Lilly and Myers have been involved in trade rumors leading up to Saturday's deadline, but Chicago manager Lou Piniella didn't think that affected his left-hander last night.

"I can tell you it wouldn't bother him," Piniella said. "I rode in with him from the hotel [Wednesday]. We talked a little bit about his situation. He wants to stay here, but he understands."

The Astros will hope Norris can notch his first win since May 13, and the right-hander is 0-3 with a 6.13 earned run average in seven starts since that outing. He has yielded 13 earned runs over his last three starts, losing consecutive games before a no-decision versus the Reds on Friday.

The right-hander yielded four runs on four hits and three walks over six innings in that outing and is 2-7 with a 6.08 ERA on the season.

Norris has yet to win at home this year, having gone 0-4 with a 7.13 ERA in seven starts, and is making his first career start versus the Cubs this evening. The 25-year-old did face them in relief a season ago, his first appearance in the majors, and allowed a run over three frames of work.

After a slow start, Cubs starter Randy Wells has started to put things together and brings a 14-inning scoreless streak into this outing.

The 27-year-old has hurled consecutive outings of seven innings, getting a no- decision versus the Phillies on July 17 before besting St. Louis on Friday. Wells held the Cardinals to five hits and three walks in a 5-0 triumph, while also striking out seven.

Wells is 5-7 with a 4.07 ERA on the season, but 2-1 with a 1.30 ERA over his last five starts. He is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts versus the Astros, but did lose in Houston on June 6 after giving up six runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings. The righty yielded a run-scoring single to Berkman and a two-run homer to Carlos Lee in the first inning to fall behind early.

Wells will look to slow down Astros third baseman Chris Johnson, as the rookie is hitting .415 (17-for-41) with three homers and nine RBI on an 11-game hitting streak.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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