Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
07/20/2010 - Birmingham, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Prairie View A&M quarterback K.J. Black remembers - rather painfully, perhaps - some of the blitzes that came his way during Southwestern Athletic Conference play last season.
"It kind of woke me up," said the field general of the reigning SWAC champions, and the 2010 SWAC Preseason Offensive Player of the Year.
It's not just Black. Everybody has to be on his toes in the SWAC, because everyone is watching each other.
A lot has been changing in the conference in recent years, starting, of course, with Prairie View winning the SWAC title last year for the first time since 1964. The Panthers' emergence is part of a trend of improvement among the Texas schools, if Texas Southern can raise its play under coach Johnnie Cole the way Prairie View has done under Henry Frazier III.
Yet really what stood out Tuesday at the SWAC Football Kickoff Luncheon and Media Day was how the coaches have been changing around the conference. In decades past, you used to know many of the head coaches would be graduates of their school, or that Eddie Robinson would be collecting black national championships at Grambling State or John Merritt would be winning games at Jackson State.
The trend in the SWAC, and really across college football, is to go younger with the coaches and try to reach for former NFL players and assistant coaches. In the 10-team SWAC, only two head coaches are on the sidelines of their alma maters, Cole and Alabama State's Reggie Barlow. And the 37-year-old Barlow, the former wide receiver and returner with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with whom he won a Super Bowl ring, could look across the room at former NFL player and assistant coach Stump Mitchell, the first-year head coach at Southern University.
Meanwhile, Alabama A&M's Anthony Jones, who is only his ninth season is the longest-tenured head coach in the SWAC, could look across the room to a former Super Bowl champion teammate, Arkansas-Pine Bluff head coach Monte Coleman, who, like Jones, played for the Washington Redskins.
Change, according to those in the know around the league, has been good.
"Put it this way," Jones said, "any time you make changes, you're making changes because you're expecting expectations to change. So when that happens, guys who are taking these jobs understand what they're walking into. Of course, their energy level will be different, their expectation level will be different.
"Any time you have guys who have played in the NFL, the best way to say it is they've been to the top. So they know what it's like to have some of the best facilities, they know what it's like to have some of the best equipment, some of the best people around, and so on. They know what it takes to win and be successful at a different level. So when that happens, they come into a situation, as they're coming into here, and they are requesting more resources into their programs."
Prairie View has seen what winning does for a program. Once a national laughingstock with a record 80 straight losses, the Panthers are 9-1 in each of the past two seasons and keep gaining national acclaim in the Football Championship Subdivision. They are the team to beat in the SWAC, not surprisingly anointed the preseason pick in the conference's preseason poll. Frazier, now in his seventh season with the Panthers, points to a win-now society for some of the changes across the conference.
The new coaches, Frazier said, are "bringing in their own philosophies and different things that may transcend what the universities have done in the past. It's one of those things that make for an interesting conference."
"The game's a young man's game for the most part because it's a grind," added Grambling State head coach Rod Broadway.
Naturally, the change in coaches brings a change in coaching styles, including more creativity - not the wing-T or options of yesteryear. The game is faster, with quarterbacks and wide receivers the ones to watch more so than the running backs. Defensively, it's all about being aggressive, as Black will attest from the blitzes he faced after he transferred to Prairie View from Western Kentucky of the Sun Belt Conference.
"In this league, which is really different from a lot of other places," Barlow said, "if you have a hundred-yard rusher, you don't turn the ball over, you control the clock, in this league you lose. In most leagues, that usually means you win."
The 51-year-old Mitchell, who spent 21 seasons in the NFL as a player and assistant coach, doesn't come aboard as a younger head coach, but his background is something that aids in recruiting. Mitchell is all business, and young players can see what that has done for him.
"It gives these players that we're coaching the opportunity to just work hard and just dream. That's the bottom line, they have to dream," Mitchell said. "Most of these coaches that have played in the NFL, you see why they played in the NFL because they're big. Now I'm one of the smaller ones. With my guys, they all feel like, well, 'Man, he played in the NFL? I think Google is wrong.' They Google me 10, 15 times to see if I'm the same guy. It just shows them that discipline is real; it can get you places that the undisciplined guy can't get regardless of how talented he is."
"I think it's a positive," Coleman added about the changes in the conference. "It helps the SWAC out, it shows the good brand of football that the SWAC is."
Prairie View, behind Black, led the SWAC with 10 selections on the preseason first and second teams, which were selected by coaches, sports information directors and selected media across the conference. In fact, the Panthers' eight first-team selections surpassed the number that any other school had on both teams.
Grambling senior defensive end Christian Anthony was named the SWAC Preseason Defensive Player of the Year and helped the Tigers to seven overall selections, which tied Texas Southern for the second most.
Alabama A&M was selected to repeat as the Eastern Division champion and to again face Prairie View in the SWAC Championship here at Legion Field on Dec. 11.
SWAC PRESEASON POLL (Coaches, Media, and selected Sports Information Directors)
Eastern Division 1. Alabama A&M (15 first-place votes), 98 points 2. Jackson State (5), 86 3. Alcorn State (2), 69 4. Alabama State, 50 5. Mississippi Valley State, 27
Western Division 1. Prairie View A&M (17), 104 2. Grambling State (2), 79 3. Texas Southern (2), 69 4. Southern, 42 5. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1), 37
PRESEASON SWAC ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM
Offensive Player of the Year - K.J. Black, QB, Prairie View A&M Defensive Player of the Year - Christian Anthony, DE, Grambling State
First Team
Offense
OL- Russell Jackson, Alabama A&M; James Dekle, Prairie View A&M; Tim Tusey, Prairie View A&M; Ramon Chinyoung, Southern; Charles Smith, Texas Southern. RB- Frank Warren, Grambling State; Donald Babers, Prairie View A&M. WR- Nick Andrews, Alabama State; William Osbourn, Texas Southern; TE- Ryan Singleton, Alcorn State. QB- K.J. Black, Prairie View A&M
Defense DL- Frank Kearse, Alabama A&M; Christian Anthony, Grambling State; Donovan Robinson, Jackson State; Quinton Spears, Prairie View A&M. LB- Afu Okosun, Alabama A&M; Cliff Exama, Grambling State; Max Sencherey, Prairie View A&M. DB- Anthony Johnson, Jackson State; Kerry Hoskins, Jackson State; Chris Adingupu, Prairie View A&M; Jason House, Southern
Specialists PK- Ari Johnson, Grambling State; P- Pedro Ventura, Prairie View A&M; KR- Kiare Thompson, Grambling State
Second Team
Offense
OL- Anquez Jackson, Alabama A&M; Bruce Beal, Alabama State; Antonio Colston, Jackson State; Terrael Williams, Jackson State; Chris Browne, Southern. RB- Cornelius Walker, Grambling State; Martin Gilbert, Texas Southern. WR- Edward Johnson, Alcorn State; Shaun Stephens, Prairie View A&M. TE- Larry Donnell, Grambling State. QB- Arvell Nelson, Southern
Defense
DL- Kynjee Cotton, Alabama State; Malcolm Taylor, Alcorn State; Reginald Foster, Mississippi Valley State; Rolando Melancon, Texas Southern. LB- Ryan Rich, Jackson State; Rory Malone, Mississippi Valley State; Dejuan Fulgham, Texas Southern. DB- Korey Morrison, Alabama A&M; Donovan Masline, Alabama State; Markkus Davis, Mississippi Valley State; DB- De'Markus Washington, Texas Southern
Specialists
PK- Brady Faggard, Prairie View A&M. P- Josh Duran, Southern. KR- Mareo Howard, Arkansas-Pine Bluff
<< Monmouth Park welcomes Horse of the Year
Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra
has safely arrived at Monmouth Park in preparation of her start in Saturday's
1 1/8-mile Lady's Secret Stakes. The four-year-old champion filly was taken
from h
<< Tottenham, Arsenal ban vuvuzelas
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tottenham became the first English Premier
League club to ban vuvuzelas Tuesday, and fellow London side Arsenal followed
suit.
The vuvuzela, a plastic horn that produces a humming sound, was prominent a
<< Chelsea goalie Cech injures calf in training
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chelsea goalkeeper Petr Cech had to leave
training early Tuesday with a calf problem, putting his status for the start
of the English Premier League season in doubt.
Cech, 28, underwent scans Tuesday a
<< Phils option disappointing Kendrick to Triple-A
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies optioned struggling
starter Kyle Kendrick to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday, recalling pitcher
Andrew Carpenter to take his place.
Kendrick suffered the loss as the Phils dr
AL West: A's won't go down without a fight >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When it comes to predicting the American League West in
recent years, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have done their best to
eliminate any uncertainty by monopolizing the division for the past few
seasons.
Last year, t
Germany coach Loew signs two-year extension >>
Berlin, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany boss Joachim Loew signed a two-year
extension Tuesday that will keep him with the team through Euro 2012.
Loew, who took over after the 2006 World Cup, has led Germany to second place
in Euro 2008
Juve's Iaquinta sidelined with thigh injury >>
Turin, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juventus striker Vincenzo Iaquinta will miss
nearly all of preseason training with a thigh injury, the Italian club said on
its website Tuesday.
Iaquinta was initially injured in the FIFA World Cup playing f
Westermann to leave Schalke for Hamburg >>
Gelsenkirchen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany defender Heiko Westermann is
set to leave Schalke for Hamburg, according to Schalke coach Felix Magath.
Westermann missed the recent FIFA World Cup with injury and the 26-year-old
wants st
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football wagering needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting