Miller expecting plenty of open looks with Heat

Basketball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 -

MIAMI (AP) -With just about every Miami Heat acquisition this summer, another recruiting story seems to emerge.

Dwyane Wade helped lure LeBron James and Chris Bosh. James played a big role in talking Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Mike Miller into coming to Miami.

And now, Miller is taking a turn.

Only days after signing with Miami, Miller is talking to close pal Jason Williams about reuniting with the team. Williams started at point guard for the Heat during Miami's championship season in 2006.

``I'd love to have him,'' said Miller, who spoke to Williams on Sunday. ``Obviously, it has to work out on both sides. J-Will would have to want to come back and Miami would have to be good with that. I just talked to him more as a friend, just to see how he's doing and what he's thinking about doing. I'm just excited for him. He had an unbelievable year last year and we'll see what happens in the future here.''

It might be a long shot, getting Williams back to Miami.

Fortunately for the Heat, Miller didn't need much convincing.

He agreed to a deal with Miami shortly after James said he was coming to join Wade and Bosh. Like at least four other players - James, Wade, Bosh and Udonis Haslem - Miller took significantly less money from Heat owner Micky Arison than he could have made elsewhere in order to be part of the rebuilt Miami roster.

Miller took a five-year deal worth around $25 million. So far this summer, Miami has closed roughly $400 million worth of deals, and done so at what might be considered around the league as bargain prices.

``In order for it to happen, it took a lot of moving parts to come together,'' Miller said. ``For one, (Heat president) Pat Riley had to do an amazing job to clear cap space, and then Mr. Arison had to go out and spend every dollar he could possibly spend to get everybody and then guys had to take less. So it was a commitment all around the board.''

Miller isn't sure if he'll start for Miami this coming season, nor has he been told exactly what role he'll have on the rebuilt Heat roster.

He just knows he should be open - a lot.

The NBA's second-best shooter from 3-point range last season came to the Heat in large part because of the opportunities he could get playing alongside Wade and James. Knowing they'll be double-covered much of the time, someone should usually be open, and that somebody could very well be him.

``There should be a lot of looks,'' Miller said. ``There's no question about it.''

Miller has started at least 47 games in nine of his first 10 NBA seasons, with the lone exception when he came off the bench 65 times for Memphis in 2005-06. He was a runaway winner of the NBA's sixth man award that season, easily outdistancing Speedy Claxton and Jerry Stackhouse.

Being the top reserve might be his starting point in Miami. Miller plays shooting guard and small forward primarily, spots also held by Wade and James.

``We can chalk those guys in as the starters,'' Miller said. ``I think it'll probably be a role that I play and I have no problem with that. I'm just here to help win games and if that's one of the ways that we can do it, then that's what I'll do.''

Coming to Miami also made sense to Miller in one other way. He gets to pair with Haslem again.

They were teammates on the Florida team that lost the 2000 NCAA title game. And Miller and Haslem have talked for years about the chance to be teammates one more time.

``Unfinished business,'' Miller said.

They'll have a chance at a bigger prize together with the Heat.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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