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06/17/2007 - London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Andy Roddick saved a match point and rallied for a three-set victory over unseeded Frenchman Nicolas Mahut to capture the Artois Championships at the Queen's Club.
The second-seeded Roddick earned a 4-6, 7-6 (9-7), 7-6 (7-2) triumph to claim the Wimbledon tuneup event for the fourth time in five years.
"It's nice winning at tournaments that you really enjoy playing at," said Roddick. "I think this place is and will continue to have a special place in my heart just because I have so many great memories from here. To have won four is great. I'll have a number of chances to get five."
The former world No. 1 won this crown three straight years from 2003-05, but has still yet to parlay it into a Wimbledon championship.
Roddick was a semifinalist at the All-England Club after his Queens victory in 2003, then reached the Wimbledon final in both 2004 and '05. Last year, he lost in the semifinals at the Queen's Club and only made it as far as the third round at Wimbledon.
Sunday's win allowed Roddick to join John McEnroe, Boris Becker and Lleyton Hewitt as four-time winners at the Queen's Club. The other three have all won on the hallowed grounds of Wimbledon.
This year's third Grand Slam event begins a week from Monday.
Mahut, who beat three-time French Open champ and last year's Wimbledon runner- up Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals, was in position to pull off another huge upset.
After taking the first set, Mahut was ahead in the tiebreak and had a match point at 7-6, but Roddick stormed back to win the next three points.
The third set also went the distance and Roddick simply dominated the tiebreak. He won the first five points and finally closed out the match with his 24th ace.
"I don't know if I was on top up until maybe 3-0 in the breaker," added Roddick about how he played Sunday. "I felt like I returned pretty well. That was just a volleying display I felt like he put on there today. I was lucky to get out of there."
Roddick earned a first prize of $107,000 for his first title of 2007. He had just one previous appearance in a final, losing to Tommy Haas in Memphis in February, and was coming off a dreadful clay season that ended with a first- round loss at the French Open.
Mahut, meanwhile, was playing in his first career ATP final. Ranked 106th in the world, he entered this event with a record of just 6-11 in singles play and will now try to qualify for Wimbledon next week.
"I'm really disappointed," stated Mahut. "I was one point away to put my name on the trophy. It's one of the greatest tournaments of the tour. You know, I had match point. It's really hard now."
Roddick improved to 2-0 lifetime against Mahut, also prevailing on carpet two years ago in Lyon.
<< Carmona, Indians top Braves to avoid sweep
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fausto Carmona pitched seven-plus strong
innings, as the Cleveland Indians avoided a three-game sweep with a 5-2
victory over the Atlanta Braves at Jacobs Field.
Carmona (8-2) gave up two runs
<< Toronto hammers Hoops
Toronto, Ontario (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Toronto FC scored a franchise-high four
goals en route to a 4-0 win over FC Dallas at BMO Field on Sunday.
Maurice Edu, Danny Dichio, Carl Robinson and Jeff Cunningham each found the
back of the ne
<< Zimmerman, Nationals down Blue Jays
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Zimmerman homered to help the Washington
Nationals avoid the sweep by edging the Toronto Blue Jays, 4-2, at Rogers
Centre.
Frank Thomas made some history in defeat, hitting his 244th home run a
<< Reds' Phillips injures hand
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon
Phillips left Sunday's game against Texas with an injured hand.
Phillips was hit on the left hand by a pitch from Texas starter Kevin Millwood
in the bottom of
Tracy helps D-Backs complete sweep of O's >>
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Snyder went 1-for-3 with a home run
and a pair of RBI and Chad Tracy drove in the go-ahead run with a single, as
Arizona swept Baltimore with a 6-4 victory in the finale of a three-game
interle
Madrid wins La Liga as Reyes sparks late rally >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Antonio Reyes came on as a second-
half substitute and scored two goals to help Real Madrid claim its first La
Liga title since the 2002-03 season with a 3-1 win against Mallorca at Estadio
Santiag
Millwood strikes out 10 as Rangers pound Reds >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kevin Millwood struck out 10 for his first
win in more than two months and Marlon Byrd drove in three runs with a double
and a homer, as the Texas Rangers notched an 11-4 victory over the Cincinnati
Reds in
Edwards wins for first time since 2005 >>
Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Breaking a 52-race winless streak, Carl
Edwards captured Sunday's Citizens Bank 400 at the Michigan International
Speedway. The No.99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford driver crossed the finish line
more th
Chiefs' Treen Green out for Sunday's game
How long Trent Green will remain sidelined is unknown. Coach Herm Edwards said Monday he will miss a second straight start Sunday when the Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers.
A two-time Pro Bowler, Green was going into a feet-first hook slide when he was knocked unconscious by a thunderous, head-snapping hit from Cincinnati's Robert Geathers.
Oddsmakers at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com currently have the Chiefs listed as 7-point favorites versus the 49ers.
The 49ers got beat by Philadelphia 38-24 as a 6.5-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Alex Smith completed 27-of-46 passes for 293 yards with a touchdown. Michael Robinson rushed for 29 yards and a pair of touchdowns on five carries.
The Chiefs lost 9-6 to Denver last week as an 11-point underdog. The combined score was well UNDER the posted over/under total (38).
Larry Johnson rushed for 126 yards on 27 carries. Damon Huard completed 17-of-23 passes for 133 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions.
To visit this online sports book got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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